You want another high-stakes game?
You got one.
Both Texas A&M and Florida enter this game with a tremendous amount of urgency and storylines galore. For Florida, head coach Billy Napier is basically coaching for his job at this point and is desperate for a solid win before the gauntlet of a schedule the Gators have to go through, not to mention his first SEC win in over 330 days.
In Texas A&M’s case, the Aggies are trying to get their first road win in over 1,060 days, since October 16, 2021 at Missouri. No that is not a typo. The Maroon and White are also trying to start off conference play right and get Mike Elko’s first win not just in SEC play, but also his first Power 4 win as the head man of the Ags.
There’s a lot on the line in this one. The winner feels a little better about their season. The loser? I don’t even want to think about the toxicity that will result.
It’s only Week 3, but it feels like a must-win for both squads, who’ll take the field in Gainesville at 2:30 to do battle.
Well… let’s break this down.
What to Expect
Desperation. From both teams. In this game specifically, the consequences for losing are far worse than the benefits of winning in this game, and both teams are going to do all they can to not drop this one at any cost.
Potentially some more rotation in the Texas A&M secondary. It was announced late Thursday night that they would be down two critical pieces to that rotation in nickel corner Tyreek Chappell and safety Trey Jones. I am expecting a lot more Dezz Ricks, Jaydon Hill, and potentially even a BJ Mayes sighting for the first real time this season.
Likely a better game for the receiving corps. The wideouts haven’t been really producing the numbers some would’ve liked to see thus far, but Florida does not have a good secondary. With the talent A&M has at wideout, I’m expecting a better game from these receivers than the past two showings (not that McNeese was bad, necessarily, but they just didn’t really throw the ball a whole lot to the 1s, which makes sense).
Two really solid ground games. Both teams have been decently successful in the running attack this year; Texas A&M really broke out last week by just pounding the rock against McNeese, while the Gators have a really good running back of their own that can do some damage. How will a not-good Florida defense and an awful A&M run stopping unit fare?
Texas A&M’s defensive line to start to show out a little bit. Florida’s offensive line has been very inconsistent - according to Pro Football Focus, they rank 53rd in pass-block rating and 111th in run-block rating out of 134 teams. Time for this pass rush - and hopefully even the run-stoppers up front - to put a major stamp on this contest. Win the battle in the trenches.
Probably a more simplified offensive gameplan, similar to how it was against McNeese State. With Conner Weigman trending towards potentially not playing this game, it could be up to second-year signal-caller Marcel Reed to try and get this win on the road. Collin Klein may ease the burden on whoever takes snaps by not overcomplicating too much, especially on the road in The Swamp.
A lot of ties between these two programs and probably heightened emotions for some as a result. Texas A&M LB Scooby Williams and DB Jaydon Hill were multi-year starters for Florida, and defensive coordinator Jay Bateman and defensive line coach Sean Spencer also used to be there before joining the Aggies. Time for a little revenge against their former program, eh?
Who to Watch - Texas A&M
QB Marcel Reed - What could be the kid’s first major road test in his college career. He’s got the athleticism to give this Florida defense fits - how well can he do throwing the ball? Will we get that Oklahoma State Marcel or McNeese Marcel? We’ve all seen the flashes that he’s showcased, but he’ll have to put it together for 60 minutes in this one - if he gets the nod.
RB Amari Daniels - The Florida kid returns home coming off of a really good game against McNeese, where he rushed for 75 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 carries. Will be watching to see if he gets more carries than in the opener to take the load off of Le’Veon Moss a little bit.
WR Terry Bussey - A&M’s offense has sorely needed a big-play threat to emerge over the first two weeks. With his explosiveness shown on full display in his first career touchdown, will Bussey start to get more snaps on offense to fill that role?
DL Shemar Stewart - Another Florida dude that is on the Aggies, it’s high time for the former five-star to get his first sack of the season considering his ability to wreck games.
CB Will Lee - Been an early-season standout at cornerback for the Aggies, presumably emerging as the team’s CB1. With a talented receiving corps against him and the rest of the secondary, he’ll have a big role to limit the Gators’ passing game and these wideouts… especially with Tyreek Chappell likely out for a long time.
S Marcus Ratcliffe - Started as kind of a rotational player at safety, but the sophomore transfer from San Diego State has been another breakout player thus far, really impressing in the action he’s gotten and earning more snaps as a result. That man flies all over the field and he should play an important role on this defense once again.
Who to Watch - Florida
QB Graham Mertz - Transfer from Wisconsin will likely operate as Florida’s starting QB in this game, but he was rough in his only appearance on the young season. Led the SEC in completion percentage last year, though.
QB DJ Lagway - Yes, I put two quarterbacks. Gator fans have been clamoring for the five-star freshman to play more, especially after he dazzled last week against Samford (18/25, 456 yards, 3 TD). He’s athletic and has a cannon of an arm, and A&M pushed really hard to get him late in his recruitment.
RB Montrell Johnson - A&M’s run defense has been a problem in the early goings, and the senior is averaging 6.7 yards per carry on 26 totes. He’s 216 pounds but has enough speed to get to the outside as well. Run fits have to be on point to keep him in check.
EDGE T.J. Searcy - The main edge threat for a Florida defensive line really searching for end talent after they lost a couple guys to the transfer portal this past offseason. Trey Zuhn and Dametrious Crownover/Reuben Fatheree will be tasked with stopping the high-motor sophomore - if he plays (he was listed as questionable).
DL Desmond Watson - He is a 6’5”, 449-pound nose tackle in the middle of that defensive line. That is all that needs to be said.
CB Jason Marshall - Florida’s secondary isn’t particularly good (they got torched against Miami) but Marshall is the best corner that the Gators have and is an established SEC starter.
What to Watch For
A Florida team really having to rely on their depth. The Gators will be down at least - four wideouts (maybe five), including their star in Eugene Wilson, four defensive backs (potentially seven), an interior defensive lineman, two tight ends, and maybe an edge rusher. The Aggies have to take advantage of this scenario.
Texas A&M’s defense really trying to set the tone on first and second down. Florida has been one of the worst teams in the nation on third and fourth downs, having a success rate of just 18.2%, good for 122nd in the nation according to Parker Fleming’s College Football Insiders. Winning those first two downs and forcing Florida into difficult third downs is going to be critical.
How the Aggies will gameplan against the mix of Mertz and Lagway. Both quarterbacks will be featured in this contest - it’s just a matter of how much that is somewhat of a mystery. Really intrigued to see Mike Elko and Jay Bateman’s plan for each of these signal-callers.
The passing game against a woeful Florida secondary thus far early in the season. I know it got off to a rough (putting it nicely) start against Notre Dame, but we saw some flashes against McNeese. Against a Gator defensive backfield that got cooked against Miami, the pressure will once again be on this passing game to have a good or even decent performance, even on the road.
Conner Weigman’s health. He’s been nursing a nagging injury since the Notre Dame game and that has downgraded his status to being a true game-time decision for this one. If he does play, how will that ailment affect his play in a big-time, SEC road game?
If Weigman can’t go tomorrow, really anxious to see how Marcel Reed does in the most hostile environment by far he will have played in his collegiate career thus far. He’s had some flashes in his first two appearances in the Maroon and White, but this is the biggest stage he’ll have played in since arriving on campus. Could his athleticism and scrambling ability cause problems for this Florida defense?
How well this A&M offense handles the noise. Mike Elko has said that they have practiced with crowd noise to simulate that effect in practice since early in the offseason, but nothing can quite replicate an actual game environment. To help out this offense, I’m expecting a lot of silent counts pre-snap.
Final Prediction
I’m very nervous for this game.
It will tell me a lot about this Texas A&M team and how far Mike Elko has brought them in his first year with the program.
Over the last few years, winning a road game has felt damn near impossible with this team. And that alone is making me want to pick against A&M so badly, combined with the fact that Weigman may be banged up and all of that.
But man, I don’t want to say or jinx anything right now… but I really don’t think Florida is a great team. They just don’t feel very well-coached, even with some of the talent they have.
The Gators are desperate, starving for a solid win before the absolutely insane stretch of games they have to play later in the season. A desperate football team is always dangerous, especially on the road and in a tough place to play for visitors.
I just trust Texas A&M a bit more, though, as crazy as that sounds since they haven’t won a road game since my freshman year. I think they can win the battle in the trenches and get enough from either Weigman or Reed to escape The Swamp with a much-needed, important win for Mike Elko and this squad. Plus they can’t lose in the Icy White uniforms that they’re wearing tomorrow.
I just pray that the road woes end here.
That’ll do it for this preview. Massive game on deck. Absolutely have to win this game.
Let’s get it done.
BTHO florida.
-Sourav