Another top ten team gets set to come to Kyle Field. Huge one on slate.
And with some choice words being thrown out earlier this week, this time it gets personal.
The ninth-ranked Missouri Tigers travel to College Station to take on the 25th-(a whoop) ranked Fightin’ Texas Aggies in a morning clash that serves as the only matchup between two ranked opponents in this college football weekend. The Ags are coming off of a hard-fought win in Arlington against the Arkansas Razorbacks, and now they return back to their friendly confines, in front of the 12th Man, to usher in maybe their most important game in this season so far.
They’d love to move to 5-1 heading into the mid-season bye week.
But first, they’ll have to prevail in this critical contest, a contest with the type of stakes that can define the rest of the season. Feels like the last few years under the old coaching staff, A&M used to love losing these games (ex. 2023 vs. Alabama, 2022 at Alabama, 2021 vs. Arkansas, etc etc). Now, under Mike Elko, the Aggies are riding a four-game winning streak into this one, looking to make a statement with the home crowd behind them and trying to buck that trend.
The pressure is on, and the stakes are incredibly high. Whoever wins this is planting their flag as a legit player in the SEC at the midway point, and for Mike Elko’s Aggies, this would be a massive step in the right direction.
The Maroon and White have been “building a house”, as they’ve said before, with every win, small steps ahead. Now, a big portion of that house can be set up with a victory on Saturday. Time to just go and get it.
What to Expect
Two teams that love to run the football and will try to do so in copious amounts. Both teams have rushers that are in the top 5 in the SEC in rushing yards, and these running games have been the driving forces of their offenses thus far. Coincidentally, both squads are also better defending the run, so this will truly be strength versus strength.
Both teams that will likely prefer to get the ball out super quickly. Missouri QB Brady Cook has a super quick release time and is one of the fastest in the nation at getting rid of the ball. Meanwhile, Marcel Reed has been much more comfortable hitting on short and intermediate routes and letting the receivers make plays after the catch throughout this season. A notable difference, though - while Reed loves to attack the middle of the field and is willing and able to, Cook has basically avoided that area of the field entirely in 2024.
Mentioning the point above regarding Cook making his living attacking the perimeter, expect these A&M defensive backs to really be active. They are going to have to really cover and tackle these receivers well, and it won’t just be the defensive backfield doing the heavy lifting out there. The linebackers are going to have to fly sideline-to-sideline as well to limit outside runs and funnel everything inside. Limiting the Tigers’ impact on the perimeter will be massive. By covering the outside well, it can help the Aggies in rushing the passer or just making Missouri really work to move the ball downfield.
Despite the talent that both teams have on offense, for the defenses to potentially be the headliner of this game. Missouri has a unit that ranks among some of the best in the conference, while Texas A&M has seen consistently really good performances from the defense all year - it’s the strength of the Aggies. However, for both teams, these will likely be the best offenses they’ve played so far this season.
I’m going to sound like a broken record, but again, a physical battle in the trenches. We all know how good A&M’s defensive line is, and the steps that the offensive line has taken as well. Those don’t need to be said. I’m especially intrigued to see, though, how the d-line matches up against an offensive line that has three multi-year starters and an impact transfer in former Oklahoma Sooner Cayden Green. This will, by far, be the Tigers’ toughest test in the trenches. While the group is a great run blocking unit, they have struggled in pass protection, so all the great pass-rushing talent that A&M has assembled have the chance to really shine.
A&M to try and force a couple of turnovers. A major portion why the Aggies have won four in a row has been winning the turnover battle. The only game where they didn’t force at least one, they lost. I expect the Aggies to come out on defense as aggressive as they’ve been over the last few weeks in efforts of forcing the Tigers to slip up at least once in this department.
A critical game for Taurean York, especially. The whole defense will be tested, no doubt, but the sophomore linebacker is the defense’s captain and is a major leader in run defense. Against a really good running game, he’ll have to be on point and productive, just like he’s been the last few weeks. If A&M’s run defense can clamp up and continue their stifling ways (they’ve held their last three opponents to 100 rushing yards or less), York will be a major reason why.
Who to Watch - Missouri
QB Brady Cook - Had a breakout season in 2023, with over 3,300 yards and 21 touchdowns through the air. One of the better quarterbacks in the SEC, but has struggled on deep passes. Really gets the ball out insanely quick, though - coverage has to be good for the pass rush to try and make him uncomfortable in the pocket. Best passer that the Aggies have faced thus far.
RB Nate Noel - Remember him from two years ago against Appalachian State? He’s now transferred and has had a really good start for the Tigers, averaging almost 6.5 yards per carry and being fifth in the SEC in rushing yards on the season. Another test for an A&M run defense that has passed the last few.
WR Luther Burden III - One of the best receivers in the nation, Burden is an electric, versatile talent that has garnered early first-round NFL Draft buzz. Best player on the Tigers, and someone the Aggies’ secondary will have to have constant eyes on.
DE Johnny Walker Jr. - Last year’s Defensive MVP in the Cotton Bowl against Ohio State, Walker is very fast and plays with a really high motor. Likely will get the Trey Zuhn assignment, but if he lines up on the right I’m ready to see the tandem of Dametrious Crownover and Reuben Fatheree take on that challenge.
S Marvin Burks Jr. - Team leader in tackles while also having an interception to his name. Former highly-rated safety that is physical and can really help out in run support.
S Daylan Carnell - Missouri’s best defensive back. Built like a linebacker, but he’s been pretty great as a safety thus far. Leads the Tigers with three pass deflections, and pairs with Burks to make a good safety duo.
Who to Watch - Texas A&M
RB Le’Veon Moss - Moss has emerged as the engine of the Texas A&M offense, powering his way through opposing run defenses and wearing down front sevens every week. He went off in the fourth quarter en route to another good performance, and he’ll face another pretty solid run defense this Saturday.
WR Noah Thomas - The junior had his best game of the season by far last week against Arkansas, going for 109 yards and a touchdown on six catches, showing the tools that made people believe he could be the number-one X-receiver that A&M has been hoping he would be. He’s looking to keep that momentum going against an Missouri secondary that is considered the “weakness” of their defense.
OT Trey Zuhn - Just continues to shine on that Texas A&M offensive line that has improved so much from the past few seasons. He’s only given up five pressures and allowed zero sacks from the left tackle spot, and he’ll look to continue being the anchor of the o-line with a good performance.
DL Nic Scourton - Bryan’s very own, the projected first-round pick broke out in a monstrous way against the Razorbacks, having his best game of the season by far a week ago. He showcased the tremendous, three-down pass-rush ability he has (4 tackles for loss, two sacks and the game-sealing forced fumble), but also looked better containing the run as well. Against a veteran Missouri offensive line, the Aggie defense will look to him to lead that front again and disrupt what has been a good Tiger offense.
CB Dezz Ricks - The redshirt freshman got his first start last week against Arkansas and delivered, being voted as the defense’s player of the game and recording his first interception in college. He continues to improve but now faces a Missouri wide receiver corps that is likely the strength of their entire team.
DB BJ Mayes - The UAB transfer is slowly working his way back from injury and had a great day at the nickel spot against Arkansas when he was asked to fill in for Jaydon Hill after his early struggles. Super aggressive and proficient in man coverage, I expect Mayes to play his largest role yet against a prolific Missouri passing game and especially top receiver Luther Burden, who loves to line up in the slot.
What to Watch For
Can Texas A&M bait Brady Cook to make some mistakes? He has a lightning-fast release whenever he passes the ball, so that pass rush will have to get home quick. I do think the Ags have the d-line advantage over the Tigers’ o-line, especially on the edges, but they’ll need to be at their best to make the veteran QB uncomfortable in the pocket, especially with how quickly he makes decisions. If they can do that, it sets up a secondary that has already intercepted seven passes on the season much better.
(Word vomit ahead) Similar to Missouri’s offensive line facing their toughest challenge by a mile, this is going to be the toughest test for Texas A&M’s secondary that we’ve seen yet. Missouri’s wide receiver room is the strength of their team - Luther Burden is an elite talent, one of the best receivers in America, and projected to be an early first-round pick in April’s NFL Draft. But the Ags can’t focus on just him, because Theo Wease leads the Tigers in receptions and receiving yards this year. Mookie Cooper is a deep threat averaging over 16 yards a catch. Keep an eye on Marquis Johnson’s eligibility for this game - he’s questionable to suit up, but he has 12 catches as well. The secondary has markedly improved, with Will Lee and Marcus Ratcliffe playing at, dare I say, really high (if not elite) levels and the likes of Dezz Ricks, Jayvon Thomas, BJ Mayes, and others also contributing. But this will be a keystone point for the group at the back end.
The 12th Man Effect. This will be Missouri’s first road game of the season, and it comes in a marquee matchup. Given the stakes and some of the shade that’s been thrown Kyle Field’s way ahead of this one, this crowd’s gotta be rocking, even for a morning game. That team is unfamiliar with how loud the 12th Man can get - they just gotta make sure to let ‘em know on Saturday.
Will Texas A&M be able to limit the big plays? It’s been a bit of an issue all year, and those warts continued on Arkansas’ opening 75-yard touchdown (but they were able to clean that up later in the game). Missouri ranked 17th in explosive pass plays in 2023, but rank just 102nd in that same stat in 2024. If A&M can continue that trend and limit the Tigers’ big plays (not just through the air, but in general), that’ll go a long way.
This is Missouri’s first real big test. Yes, they are a very good team. Yes, their statistical profile is among the best in the nation. But the toughest teams they’ve faced are… Boston College and Vanderbilt, and just barely getting by them. I understand teams can only play who’s in front of them, but traveling to what should be a hostile Kyle Field will be by far their toughest game of the season up to this point. They’ve had the third-easiest schedule among Power 4 teams and 15th-easiest among all schools, according to ESPN’s FPI. Ready to see how they’ll fare against heightened competition. Will it be like Ole Miss a week ago? We’ll find out soon.
Can Texas A&M stay ahead of the chains? Those early downs are going to be critical against a Missouri defense that has excelled so far this year on third and fourth downs. Opponents against the Tigers have a 26.7% success rate on those downs, which puts them at sixth in the nation. They do a great job getting off the field in those situations, so A&M is going to have to find a lot of success early on to make these late-down scenarios easier or through just moving the chains on first and second.
Will whoever starts at quarterback be able to push the ball downfield on this Missouri secondary? If I had to identify one weakness in this Tigers team, I would probably say their defensive backfield. While the stats are great for them, Missouri hasn’t played a team that ranks inside the top 100 in passing offense this season, and they have given up a big play or two per contest. In addition, Boston College QB Thomas Castellanos passed for 249 yards and three touchdowns while Vandy signal-caller Diego Pavia went 14-for-23 for 173 yards and two touchdowns of his own. They have some talent there obviously, but this is a unit that lost three players to the NFL from a season prior. The opportunity to go and win in that facet of the game is there.
Final Prediction
Texas A&M has a reputation for losing the big game at home. They’ve struggled with that in the past few years.
The last time the Aggies have won a big home game with actual stakes was, what, 2020 vs. Florida? Obviously, y’all are going to point to the big 2021 win against Alabama and 2022 vs. LSU. But A&M was unranked in those matchups and were mainly just playing spoiler.
This time, though, there are legit stakes. Huge payoffs if the Aggies can pull this one out.
The season opener against Notre Dame was a missed opportunity. Now, Texas A&M has the chance to rectify that with a top-ten team visiting. Win, and College Football Playoff contention becomes a legit goal that is very much attainable. Win, and the national perception of this team changes. Obviously, after Saturday it’s only the midway point of the year and more work will need to be snow, but the opportunity is there - the Aggies just have to get it done.
But Missouri is a really good team. They’re not top ten for no reason. They have the best offense A&M will have faced thus far and a defense that has statistically performed really well through the first portion of the season. While they haven’t faced the greatest competition, they’re still 4-0 and number 9 in the country, and they’ve beaten the teams they’ve supposed to beat. They’ll also be looking to make a statement that they’re for real.
For A&M, though, they’ve been battle tested over these first five games. It feels like they’re getting more comfortable playing their brand of football as the season has gone on. Sometimes it hasn’t been pretty, but the Aggies have just kept winning ever since that crusher against Notre Dame in Week 1.
Again, it’s been baby steps. The house they keep referring to is still being built. But I like where they’re headed. A big part of that foundation can be laid tomorrow.
They just have to go out and take what’s theirs.
It’s going to be another close one, but I think Texas A&M can go and get it done. If they can continue to play clean football and limit explosive plays, I like the Aggies’ chances.
That’ll do it for this preview. Get to Kyle - war is brewing.
It’s time for Texas A&M to make a statement.
BTHO missouri.
-Sourav