Okay. It’s time.
Been a weird, weird season. But Buzzketball is back in the Big Dance, and a battle with bolstered stakes awaits them in the beginning bout.
And the first task - taking down Big Red, the 8-seeded Nebraska Cornhuskers in Memphis.
I gotta be honest, I didn’t expect Texas A&M to earn a 9-seed heading into Selection Sunday. I thought they’d be max a 10. But I’ll gladly take a 9, and with the recent drama surrounding Texas A&M hiring Nebraska’s former Athletic Director Trev Alberts, the committee decided to engage in a little bit of tomfoolery by placing the two former Big 12 rivals against each other.
So yeah, there is a lot riding on this one. Not to mention the winner moving on to survive another day and likely face top-seeded Houston, while the loser’s season ends. That as well.
No more room for error. Time to go to war.
Let’s hope this year’s Round of 64 game ends better than last year, yeah?
ROUND OF 64 - vs. #8 NEBRASKA - 4:50 CT - TNT
The first thing I notice about Nebraska when seeing them is that man, they’re a very balanced team. With good - not too great, but not bad either - metrics seemingly across the board, the Cornhuskers are a fascinating team to watch as a neutral. With an array of shooters that love to run around, move the ball around, and stay active off-ball in hopes of getting open, who also have the ability to get hot in a hurry, it’s eerily similar to last year’s matchup against Penn State.
And god forbid another repeat of that atrocity. *Vietnam flashbacks*
But we’re here to break down the matchup and hopefully break Nebraska hearts again, leaning into the villain role against one of America’s sweethearts in Keisei Tominaga, their star point guard. In a huge game that has been touted as one of the more competitive matchups of the first round of the NCAA Tournament, it’s time for the Aggies to continue to play some of their best basketball of the season.
Let’s do it.
GOOD STATS
Buzz Williams is 17-5 in March over the last three seasons.
As has been mentioned many a time, the Aggies are the best offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing a whopping 41.2% of their misses. More offensive rebounds = more possessions = more chances to score = probably more points. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers aren’t too proficient at grabbing offensive boards, obtaining them at just a 26% clip, while also giving up a good amount of offensive rebounds to opposing teams. Big battle to keep an eye on there.
The Aggies also don’t really turn the ball over a whole lot, ranking seventh-fewest of all teams in the Big Dance with just 9.6 giveaways per contest. Meanwhile, Nebraska doesn’t really force a whole lot of turnovers, either, averaging just about 6 steals per game.
Another big part of offensive success is free throws, and the Ags can really get to the line. 23% of their points come from the charity stripe, fifth-most among tourney teams. If they can continue to get to the free-throw line at a high rate, it could make life on offense much easier.
There are times where Texas A&M can struggle with teams that have length when it comes to attacking the rim consistently, but Nebraska doesn’t really have a whole lot of it. They only average about two and a half blocks per match.
The guard tandem of Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford have come alive against good competition this season, as both rank inside the top 20 players - Taylor 10th and Radford 17th - in points per game against Quad 1 opponents in the field. Two big game players that have stepped up time and time again will look to do so again on the biggest stage, something that Four especially has done this season.
Both teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency, according to KenPom’s statistics - Texas A&M ranks 26th out of the 64 remaining teams in the field; Nebraska is 27th.
Nebraska is the only Power 6 program to have NEVER won a March Madness game. I really hope that stat doesn’t change come postgame.
In his last seven games, Manny Obaseki has popped all the way off, averaging 15.1 points, almost 3 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game. His emergence as a third ball-handler has greatly helped this Texas A&M offense, and he’ll look to carry that momentum over into the Dance.
Sophomore forward Solomon Washington has also come alive, too - over his last five, he’s averaging 13.4 points, 9 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, and 1.6 steals per game. A true do-it-all energizer bunny that has stepped up in a major way.
Nebraska has a 4-9 record away from Lincoln.
The Aggies have been very battle-tested up to this point, ranking 9th in opposing offenses faced and 17th in opposing defenses faced. The non-conference slate and SEC play have Buzz’s guys ready for essentially anything, which is a great thing.
NOT SO GOOD STATS
According to Carter Karels - since 2006, no team that has ended a season shooting 30% or worse from three-point range has advanced in the NCAA Tournament. Texas A&M currently has the worst three-point percentage of all teams in the field at 28.4%, but Nebraska seems to allow a good amount of open threes to opponents.
For as much as A&M likes to get to the free-throw line, the Huskers don’t really foul a whole lot, ranking 18th in fewest fouls committed per game out of the remaining teams in March Madness. They can also hit their free throws when they get to the line, as they’re in the top 50 nationwide in free-throw percentage.
The Cornhuskers are a fairly good three-point shooting team, hitting 36% of their attempts from the floor while also attempting the 26th most threes per game in the country. The Huskers have five players who all shoot at least 36% from three-point land - no one in their regular rotation shoots under 30% from downtown. Buzz Williams’ defenses historically have trouble defending the perimeter.
Nebraska is pretty careful with the basketball as well, averaging just about 11 turnovers per game. Could be a game where extra possessions and points off of turnovers could be at a premium.
Over their last ten games, Nebraska’s opponents have been shooting just under 30% from deep, which is a testament to the perimeter defense that they have. Something to keep an eye on with the Ags’ shooting woes from deep - can they break through?
I said that they’re a balanced team, and they are really well-rounded. Not an exaggeration. Just one of 15 teams with a top-42 offense and defense heading into the tourney.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Keisei Tominaga, G
Notable stats: 14.9 PPG (leads team), 46.8% FG%, 37.2% 3PT%, 87.2% FT%
I hate that we have to go against him - one of the most fun players in college basketball to watch. Absolute flamethrower from deep, and can get red-hot from three-point range instantly. The main offensive threat from a team that loves to shoot the three - expect for him to get the Solomon Washington assignment from Buzz Williams.
Brice Williams, G
Notable stats: 13.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.1 SPG (leads team), 39.2% 3PT%
Super active, very athletic guard that is only one of three Huskers to have played in every game this year for them. High flyer, excellent in transition and active on both sides of the ball. Pretty tall for a guard at 6’7” and has the ability to hit from all three levels. Can be forced into committing turnovers every now and then, though.
Rienk Mast, F
Notable stats: 12.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG (leads team), 3.0 APG (leads team)
Main interior threat for the Huskers, big-bodied at 6’10” and 248 pounds. Dutchman is good on the post and adds some playmaking flair on the interior as well, leading Nebraska in assists per game. Logs the most minutes per game for the Big Red. Can also shoot a bit from deep (34.2% 3PT%).
Juwan Gary, F
Notable stats: 11.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 0.8 BPG (leads team)
Has had a nice bounce-back season after suffering season-ending injury in 2022-23 campaign. Physical inside even at just 6’6”, and willing to take on contact. Another big interior threat for the Aggies to watch out for, and very active on defense with just under 2 stocks (steals + blocks) per contest.
C.J. Wilcher, G
Notable stats: 7.9 PPG, 39.7% 3PT% (leads team), 93.9 FT% (leads team)
Been struggling with illness recently, but Nebraska head coach Fred Hoiberg announced that he would likely play in this one. Doesn’t get a ton of minutes, but has really shown the ability to shoot the skin off the ball, as evidenced by his team-leading three-point percentage. Near-automatic at the free-throw line as well.
STORYLINES
Tominaga vs. Taylor
One of the marquee individual matchups of the entire first round. Two microwaves, the centerpieces of each of their team’s offenses, and both with seemingly-limitless range and some of the greenest lights in the country. Two of the most fun players in the tournament, and two players who can get a bucket at virtually any time.
Should be enough to convince you to sit down and watch some cinema on display.
We’ve all seen how Wade Taylor has shown up time and time again for Texas A&M on offense, single-handedly keeping the Aggies in games at times. When he hits that first three, he can heat up in a hurry and become a matchup nightmare for anyone. Same goes for Tominaga - just look at his performance against Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament. Whoever’s first to start getting shots to fall is gonna provide a massive boost for their team. And after Taylor’s torrid starts against Kentucky and Florida that have propelled the Aggies to leads in those games, they’ll need him to do that again.
Can Manny O Keep Up His Great Form?
I think the emergence of Manny Obaseki has unquestionably been the biggest positive development for Texas A&M not just at this point in the season, but just in general.
Ever since being inserted into the starting lineup as SEC play was winding down, Obaseki has been on an absolute tear, rounding into a third playmaker and ball-handler for a team that has been looking for someone, anyone, to take the pressure off of Taylor and Radford. His breakout is, frankly, a large reason why Texas A&M is even in the tournament in the first place.
His development has allowed the offense to open up and becoming more free-flowing, as he’s found his confidence and has blossomed into someone who can score at all three levels to pair with his athletic gifts that he already had coming out of high school. He has fit perfectly into the “drive drive drive” offense that A&M likes to run and isn’t afraid of a little physicality.
If he can continue that stretch and maintain that high level of confidence, he could play a pivotal role in how the Ags’ offense can get up and running. Very intrigued to see his role once again in this one.
We Hebben Een Serieus Probleem
1. If you don’t get this title I envy you for not being as chronically online as I am.
2. Rienk Mast presents a very interesting challenge for the Texas A&M frontcourt in this game.
The Aggies haven’t really faced many playmaking forwards throughout the year, but the Netherlands native is one of the Cornhuskers’ primary distributors. He’s pretty crafty on offense and isn’t just an interior presence, willing to shoot the three-ball as well and operating on the perimeter a good amount.
Intrigued to see how the Ags will attempt to counter that, especially since they don’t really have the size in their personnel outside of the sparsely-used Wildens Leveque (even if they make up for it with their effort and intensity). Would probably think that Andersson Garcia would primarily follow him around with a sprinkling of Henry Coleman and other wings? Just my stab at that. Expect a lot of switching and help, though.
Battle of the Boards (duh)
Texas A&M has followed a formula to winning this season, one that mainly consists of winning the rebounding battle and earning second-chance opportunities in spades to offset the misses that the Aggies have on offense. Stop me if you’ve heard that before.
So it comes as no surprise that they’re gonna have to do that again if they have a shot of winning this one. And it’s doubly important in this one (and just in the tournament as a whole), considering how efficient Nebraska is on both sides of the ball.
Andersson Garcia has been a star on the boards all year long. The Dominican Rodman will need to bring the hustle like he has been all season and continue his torrid stretch on the boards - if I recall correctly, he averaged 10 or close to 10 rebounds per game in SEC games, a stunning number. The Aggies’ record holder for rebounds in a single season will have to be active on the glass once again. Same goes for basically everyone else.
No more important time to preach that if you’re Buzz Williams. Winning the rebounding battle is a must.
Can Buzz Finally Get Over the Hump?
In what is a very unfortunate and notorious fact among the 12th Man, Buzz Williams has never won a tournament game with Texas A&M. This is just his second appearance in the tourney with the Aggies.
It’s time to get over that roadblock. It would be a major step to at least get one win in the Big Dance and would help keep the critics off of his back. This year hasn’t gone the way a lot of Ags have hoped it would, but a late hot stretch is providing A&M with momentum heading into this one. A win in the tournament, as underdogs, would be critical in maintaining a positive environment around the program.
FINAL THOUGHTS
This game will boil down to a couple of things.
1. Nebraska’s ability to hit the three-pointer. As mentioned before, Texas A&M allows a lot of open threes. If the Huskers are hitting, I do not feel as good about the Aggies’ chances of winning. However, if they can’t find the bottom of the net, then I feel a lot better about the Aggies’ chances, especially with the evolution of A&M’s half-court offense in recent games. But if the Huskers are connecting on their outside shots… I’m worried it could be Penn State Part Two.
2. What type of defense will Buzz Williams deploy? We’ve seen the Ags go more man-to-man at times and use zone at other times. Sometimes zone has worked, and other times it hasn’t (*cough cough Florida*). Ideally, I would hope for Texas A&M to go more man-to-man and rely on switching and staying in front of the Huskers, because the Aggies are pretty solid at that. Zone defense can sometimes be a death sentence against good three-point shooting teams, so, you know, I’d rather them not take that risk.
3. Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford. These two have owned the big stage time and time again this season, coming up big whenever the Aggies have needed them. From two great games against Kentucky, Taylor’s scoring explosions against Houston, Arkansas, FAU, and so many other teams, and Radford putting the Maroon and White on his back in the first match with Florida, the veteran backcourt has proven why they’re one of the best guard tandems in the nation.
They’ll have to live up to that billing tomorrow. Sure, everyone will have to step up, no doubt. But these two are going to have to lead the charge, especially against a team that can get hot offensively in a hurry. They’ll need to start fast, match them shot for shot, and impose their brand of basketball on this game for the Aggies to have a chance. Good guard play usually equates to success in March, and Texas A&M will need their leaders to take over.
It’s what this entire season has led to. Time to play somewhat of a villain role and get that W with the brightest lights beating down.
If you’ve made it this far, thank you so much for reading. I love March Madness, and writing about it is very fun. My bracket is already busted but I don’t really care (kind of. Fuck you BYU). All that matters is getting that win tomorrow evening.
Take care, y’all.
-Sourav