Big win in the first round.
Now it’s time to get some revenge.
After a dominant 98-83 win over the eighth-seeded Nebraska Cornhuskers, the Aggies now move onto the Round of 32 for a date with the top-seeded Houston Cougars after they took care of business in their first game against 16-seeded Longwood. Fresh off of the first tournament win of the Buzz Williams tenure, the Ags now look forward to an in-state rival in a match with a Sweet 16 spot on the line and with more at stake than a regular Round of 32 contest.
Let’s do it.
ROUND OF 32 - vs. #1 HOUSTON - 7:40 CT - TNT
This ain’t your normal second-round match.
For the second time this season, Texas A&M and Houston are set to do battle on the hardwood. The first time, the Cougars won what was basically a de-facto home game at the Toyota Center in a neutral-site matchup, taking that one 70-66 despite a furious late rally and 34 points from Wade Taylor.
This time? Things have changed.
Texas A&M didn’t have Tyrece Radford for that one, and Manny Obaseki is primed to get a much bigger role in this one after finding his footing late in the season and continuing his hot streak of performances. The Aggies are healthier and have a set rotation, along with playing some of their best basketball at the moment. Just ask Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson.
Payback will be on the minds of the 12th Man, and a chance to turn the Big Dance upside down and take down a 1-seed is just the icing on the cake.
An A&M team that’s on fire vs. a Houston squad that has been considered one of the best in the nation for damn near the entire year. Buzz Williams vs. Kelvin Sampson, two great head coaches with highly physical squads, set to do battle. Cinema is about to unfold.
The journey continues.
GOOD STATS
Buzz Williams is now 18-5 in March as head coach of the Texas A&M Aggies over the last three seasons.
Even with Andersson Garcia in foul trouble against Nebraska, five Aggies scored in double figures and the every member of the guard trio put up 20 or more. Offense looking to ride that positive momentum into this one, and the guards will need a replication of that performance.
For how vaunted Houston’s defense is in forcing turnovers, Texas A&M ranks inside the top 25 in turnover percentage on offense. They are elite at not giving the opponent extra possessions.
Houston was just average on the glass in Big 12 play on defense, so that could lead to more offensive rebounds for the nation’s best offensive rebounding team than people think.
Gonna reuse the stat of Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford showing up against big competition after they did so again versus Nebraska. Among remaining players in the tournament, Taylor is 7th and Radford 11th in terms of points per game against Quad 1 opponents.
Manny Obaseki has raised his scoring average to 16 points per game over his last eight contests - a major boon to the Texas A&M offense and getting it to open up.
Wade Taylor is sixth among all remaining players in terms of three-point makes throughout the season.
Even though Solomon Washington only put up 7 points against Nebraska, he proved his worth as the Aggies’ best defender by notching 4 blocks and making some highlight reel-worthy plays on that end of the court. Invaluable member of this team.
The Aggies’ battle-tested group should be more than ready for this fight. They’ve played and have defeated some elite teams en route to tonight, ranking 9th in opposing offenses faced and 17th in opposing defenses faced.
Texas A&M continued to dominate on the glass against the Cornhuskers, winning the rebounding battle 40-28 against the eight-seed. They’ll need to have a good performance on the glass again in order to have any chance of winning this one.
For all of Texas A&M’s struggles from three-point land this year, they’ve been on fire from behind the arc recently, hitting 45.7% of their looks from deep in the last three games. That’s second among remaining teams in the Big Dance, 0.1% behind Iowa State.
NOT SO GOOD STATS
Houston has the best scoring defense in the nation, only giving up 56.7 points per game, highlighted by a swarming and physical unit that forces 16 turnovers per game; that’s second-most among remaining tournament teams, only behind Iowa State.
They might be the most efficient team in the country across the board, ranking 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency for the remaining teams in the tourney.
Buzz Williams’ defense, as many know, is susceptable to giving up open threes - Houston’s L.J. Cryer ranks second among all remaining players in terms of three-point makes on the season. Someone to keep an eye on.
The Cougars are elite in virtually every advanced metric, including ranking 1st in the NET rankings and 2nd in KenPom rankings.
While Houston might not have extraordinary size or length on the interior as compared to other teams, they do have an intimidating paint presence, notching about double the number of blocks per game as opposed to Nebraska.
For being pretty average on the defensive glass during conference play, the Cougars are an elite offensive rebounding team, similar to Texas A&M. They are third among remaining teams in the tourney in offensive rebounding percentage at 37.1%.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Jamal Shead, G
Notable stats: 13.0 PPG, 6.3 APG (leads team), 2.2 SPG (leads team), 32.1% 3PT%
One of the best point guards in America, the Big 12 Player of the Year. Exceptional on defense (two-time Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year) and is the team’s primary ball-handler. Heartbeat of the team, and also a highly-talented playmaker. Had 12 points, 8 assists, a steal, and 2 blocks against Texas A&M the last time the two teams faced off. Potential Solo assignment?
L.J. Cryer, G
Notable stats: 15.4 PPG (leads team), 1.1 SPG, 39.1 3PT% (leads team), 87.9% FT% (leads team)
The Cougars’ best shooter - elite from outside. Baylor transfer has a sweet stroke (pause) and hits at a very high clip, especially from the perimeter. Gets a steal per game as well. Had four threes and 17 points in Houston’s win over the Aggies in December. Has plenty of experience in March - won the national championship as a freshman in 2020. No stranger to the big stage.
Emanuel Sharp, G
Notable stats: 12.3 PPG, 1.5 SPG, 36.2% 3PT%
Highly underrated cog of this Houston team and the team’s leading scorer in their win over A&M during the regular season (21 points, five threes). Can start knocking down shot after shot on a whim - has the ability to get hot very quickly. Like seemingly the rest of the Houston team, also very active on defense - his steals per game are second on the team.
Damian Dunn, G
Notable stats: 6.6 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 32.9% 3PT%
Super sixth man for the Cougars. Third on the team in three-point percentage and logs plenty of minutes off the bench, with an increased workload due to injuries suffered to the rest of the Houston team. Temple transfer can get hot in a hurry as well - has had experience as a primary ball-handler with the Owls, even though he only had 1 point in first match.
Ja’Vier Francis, F
Notable stats: 6.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 0.9 SPG, 1.5 BPG (leads team)
Main interior presence defensively and one of two primary forwards that log minutes for Houston, along with J’Wan Roberts. Great shot-blocker - recorded three swats against Texas A&M at the Toyota Center. Getting him in foul trouble could be big with his aggressiveness and willingness to go for blocks being prominent.
STORYLINES
A Tale Of Two Teams
Last time these two teams played, Houston had key rotational pieces Terrance Arceneaux and JoJo Tugler in the lineup and healthy heading into that matchup, with both having played critical roles for Kelvin Sampson’s squad up to that point in the season. Both are not available due to season-ending injuries, while guards Mylik Wilson, Ramon Walker, and center Cedric Lath will play bigger roles for the Cougars as their rotation has changed.
Meanwhile, as mentioned before, Boots Radford will play Houston for the first time while Manny Obaseki, who is soaring at the moment, will get the start and a much, much bigger role for Buzz Williams and Texas A&M. Hayden Hefner, Henry Coleman, and Jace Carter will come off the bench and have more complementary roles for the Aggies as opposed to the starting responsibilities that were bestowed upon them for the first contest (even if Coleman and Carter will both likely log 20 minutes or so).
Both teams are playing each other a second time, but don’t let that fool you. These are two very different squads from a few months ago. Highly intrigued to see how those altered rotations and lineups will alter the gameplans for both teams.
Buzz vs. Sampson, Taylor vs. Shead
Two individual matchups stand out in a game filled with great talent across the board.
First, two great coaches square off. Kelvin Sampson’s status in college basketball should go without saying. He’s been an elite recruiter and developer of talent while having a great in-game background as well. But for Buzz? He’s faced some scrutiny from the 12th Man this year when the Ags were up and down. But, ever since he ditched his suit for a more casual sideline fit, he’s really amped up his coaching prowess over the last few weeks, putting together great in-game adjustments time and time again and letting Manny Obaseki run wild en route to a very hot stretch. This is why he was paid so handsomely when he was hired from Virginia Tech. Super excited to see the chess match between those two unfold.
Then, similar to how we got a gem of a game between Wade Taylor and Keisei Tominaga in the first round, Four will face another tough point guard in Houston’s Jamal Shead. Shead presents a different challenge for Taylor, extremely active on defense and a catalyst for a unit that loves to force turnovers, while also adept enough offensively to do some damage on that end as well. After dropping 34 in the first matchup against the Cougars and after a stellar 25-point performance in the first round of the tournament, Taylor seems poised to lift this team once again as they try to spring the upset, as the big-game player will be in his biggest one yet.
MONEY MO
I wondered if Manny O would keep his torrid run of play going heading into March Madness.
He answered those questions resoundingly, putting up 22 points, highlighted by a run late in the first half where he scored the team’s last 16 before the buzzer.
Houston poses likely the toughest challenge yet for the junior from Allen, but it seems like his confidence is sky-high and is really helping him blossom into a bonafide star for this team, with three-level scoring ability to pair with his stellar athleticism and pretty good defense. He’s been the reason A&M even got into the tourney in the first place, he was a major reason why they won, and he’ll continue to be a big reason for future success.
The ultimate X-factor can open up the A&M offense even more against a stout, physical unit like Houston’s. And if Taylor or Radford ever need to sit, I’m more than confident that Obaseki can continue to lead the group.
Just Keep Going, 35.
Threes? Shooting???
Texas A&M hit 13 threes against Nebraska, with three players scoring 20 or more points and two more hitting double figures en route to putting 98 on the Huskers’ heads.
That’s pretty good! But for how efficient Nebraska is on defense, Houston is way tougher of a matchup on defense than… well, a lot of teams. Probably even every team in the country.
The Aggies will have to rely on their three-headed monster of Taylor, Radford, and Obaseki once again, maybe more so than ever. That’s been the formula for success, along with the next point that’s gonna be mentioned. Their athleticism and natural abilities to drive to the bucket on a dime is such a gift to Texas A&M and opening up the rest of the offense. Their aggression can result in a lot of things - kicking the ball out and swinging it around the perimeter to find an open outside shot, earning tough points at the rim, drawing fouls and sending them to the charity stripe, and allowing for the rest of the guys on the court to freely move around and find space so that the ball-handlers can hit them for an open look.
The half-court offense has evolved with Obaseki’s development, as having so many natural shot-creators has resulted in major scoring upticks and a relief of pressure off of Taylor and Radford. With the trio’s skillsets, they’ll have to keep funneling the offense through them and really stick it to Houston early, getting out to a fast start and/or keeping pace if the Cougars hit their shots from the jump, a la how Nebraska did and how the Ags were able to stay with them until they pulled away.
The Boards, Again
I mean, obviously.
If A&M has any shot of winning this game, it’ll be because the rebounding battle is either won by the Aggies or if it’s tied. They absolutely cannot afford to get outrebounded, especially against an elite team. Crashing the glass has been something Texas A&M has prided itself on this season, with relentless pressure on the boards resulting in plenty of second chances (and thus, second chance points) or defensive stops. And they will need every board they can get, and as many opportunities they can get, against the Cougars.
It was tied the last time these two teams played, at 37 apiece. The Aggies put up 40 in their win against the Cornhuskers. Look for Andersson Garcia to play a really, really big role in this one… if he can stay out of foul trouble. This frontcourt is going to have to really give it their all and just be ruthless on the boards. It’s gonna be a dogfight in the post, but A&M is gonna have to bring the fight to the interior.
That’s what has propelled A&M to a lot of victories this year, and that will be a critical factor in this matchup as well.
FINAL THOUGHTS
This is the ultimate test.
The guys have an opportunity to shock the world tonight. They’re basically playing with house money at this point. They’re playing some of their best basketball of the year at the time where it matters most. They have legitimate momentum fueled by recent adjustments and developments. It matters more than people think it does.
However, while Nebraska is a good foe and worthy first challenge, Houston is a different behemoth altogether. With relentless pressure on defense, both on and off the ball, the Ags are going to have to play their cleanest basketball of the season. Texas A&M isn’t a high-turnover team at all, but ball security will have to be at some of its best, especially after committing more miscues than usual in the first match. That’s the main battle that I’m gonna be watching today.
Also eager to see Radford and Obaseki’s roles and how that’ll change the complexion of the game. It’s a full strength A&M team after not being at that level in the first match, and that’s a major boost to the Aggies’ upset chances. If they can be the hot-shooting, accurate, high-volume team that we saw on Friday, that would be massive. It’s a big if, but considering how A&M has played recently, it might not be as big of one as it was earlier in the season.
It’s going to be physical, gritty, and tough in this one, but that’s just how A&M likes it. Continue to set the tone and keep that physicality.
Overall, this is the barometer for how good this improved Texas Aggie team really is, especially for the Maroon and White’s offense against such a good defense. But a combination of factors, including the recent hot stretch and getting another shot at an elite foe, will undoubtedly help them in their quest. With a chip on their shoulder and confidence at a high…
let’s go shock the world.
Thanks for reading. Time to take care of some business.
Enjoy the game tonight.
-Sourav