BTHO mississippi state
Let's kick off the second half of the season right
Prepare for cowbells.
That’s what the 12th Man is gonna hear a lot of on Saturday afternoon, when the Fightin’ Texas Aggies travel down to Starkville to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs after they got last week off. After I guess winning (beating the hell outta?) the bye week and moving up a spot in the AP Poll, Texas A&M is now #14 in the nation as they’ll look to keep the positive momentum rolling in the thick of their SEC schedule.
It’s just the second true road test that Texas A&M will have faced up to this point in the season, and despite Mississippi State’s 1-5 record, there are signs that will undoubtedly keep the Aggies on their toes. They travel to a place that has not been kind to the Maroon and White, as I believe they’re just 2-4 in Davis Wade Stadium since joining the SEC. The Bulldogs have also just given the Aggies trouble in the past, especially in the Jimbo Fisher tenure in College Station - I remember those losses when I was a freshman and sophomore, but the blowout win last season was a nice change of pace, at least. Not to mention Jimbo Fisher getting fired a day later.
The Bulldogs are breaking in a new coach in first-year man Jeff Lebby, and his squad has not rolled over against some tough opponents, keeping things close for a while against Texas and putting up 31 on the road at Georgia their last two games. Now, they’ll host the Ags in their first conference home game, so they’ll be looking to play a little bit of a spoiler role.
I know people want to look ahead to the LSU game, and rightfully so, but Mike Elko has to keep his guys focused on this game first. Any road game is hard, and Texas A&M is going up against an improving Mississippi State team in this one. Yes, they’ve been bad this year, and I do think we should take this one (spoiler), but the Aggies have gotta play like they have been during this five-game winning streak.
Time to impose Texas A&M’s brand of football in this one. Time to get back after it following the off week.
Let’s take a closer look at this one.
What to Expect
The Texas A&M gameplan on offense should be to run the damn ball. For a lack of better terms, Mississippi State’s run defense is horrid. They are in the bottom 15 in rushing yards allowed per game and sixth-worst in rushing defense success rate. With how good the Aggies have been running the ball behind Le’Veon Moss and a much-improved offensive line, there’s no excuse to not give Moss the rock and let him and that o-line go to work. The strength of the A&M offense matches up very well here.
Get ready for a busy day for the Aggie secondary. They had a phenomenal performance their last time out against Missouri, and now they’ll face another team that loves to throw the ball. Mississippi State’s wide receiver room is arguably the strength of their team, and they have a freshman QB that loves to play fast and throw deep, and who is getting better. Limiting explosive plays will be paramount in pulling this game out.
On that note, I expect a lot of over the top help from the safeties to make Mississippi State work to move the ball down the field - no letting the Bulldog wideouts run past the secondary. I’m also ready to see the exotic blitz packages that Mike Elko and Jay Bateman are known for, and the scenarios when they’ll deploy them to confuse a young quarterback on the other side.
You know how we talked a little bit before that the Bulldogs’ run defense is bad? Their pass defense is also among some of the worst in the nation (fourth-worst in defensive dropback success rate, most passing yards per game given up among SEC teams). I’m looking to see how Conner Weigman and an improving receiving corps can attack this secondary after an efficient and good outing against Missouri, and the opportunity is there for them to capitalize.
Conner Weigman had a phenomenal day against Missouri and will be looking to build off of that success after a week of getting healthier. (Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle)
Texas A&M to control time of possession in this game. Mississippi State’s offense is better than their defense, and as the saying goes, “control the ball, control the game”. This may be the worst defense that A&M faces among FBS opponents this year, and that isn’t an exaggeration. If they can churn out good, long drives and keep them on the field (which keeps their offense off it in turn), I have confidence that the Aggie offense can march the ball on them and capitalize on their chances.
The receivers to try and continue their upward trajectory this year. Mike Elko mentioned that position group as a whole as one of the most improved so far in 2024, and they now get a favorable matchup off of a bye week against a Bulldog secondary that hasn’t been the best in coverage this year. If they can continue developing and help evolve this passing game further, it could make this offense that much scarier.
If I had to guess, continued implementation of Terry Bussey in the Texas A&M offense. The five-star freshman had his best game of the season against Missouri and led the Aggies in receiving despite playing just 25 (a whoop) snaps, I think? Collin Klein is finding more creative ways to get the dynamic athlete the ball and let him go to work, and I’m hoping that trend continues tomorrow.
Who to Watch - Texas A&M
QB Conner Weigman - Had by far his best game of the season against a quality opponent, and after getting an extra week for his shoulder to heal, I’m very intrigued to see how he’ll build off of that performance and attack a Mississippi State secondary (and defense as a whole) that has been leaky in 2024.
RB Le’Veon Moss - I’d likely say that he’s been Texas A&M’s MVP through six games, and after putting up some gaudy numbers in the last few games he could be primed for another big performance in this one; Mississippi State has a really bad run defense, which could spell big news for the junior’s production in this contest.
A dynamic Le’Veon Moss + a good o-line + facing a bad run defense = profit? That’s what A&M’s hoping for on Saturday. (Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle) T Reuben Fatheree - Wrote about him being my offensive “breakout” midway through the season, and he’s really rebounded after a rough few years (especially in pass protection). His timeshare at right tackle with Dametrious Crownover has been a pleasant surprise on the offensive line this season.
EDGE Nic Scourton - A&M’s best player has started to really wreak havoc and cause major problems for opposing offenses, and that’s translating to statistical production now. Against a Mississippi State offensive line that has struggled protecting their quarterbacks, Scourton and the rest of that defensive line could be in for a big day.
CB Dezz Ricks - The young corner’s performance has really gotten better and better since the season opener, and while he had his warts early on (as most, if not all young cornerbacks do), he’s more than held his own against some of the SEC’s better wideouts. He’s paired with Will Lee and Jayvon Thomas to create a nice trio on the boundary for the Aggies’ defense.
S Dalton Brooks - Mike Elko acknowledged Brooks as maybe the most improved player on defense at the midway point this season, and after a rocky start it has felt like he’s starting to really come into his own. The sophomore had a nice game against Missouri and will be paramount in stopping a Mississippi State passing game that is the strength of that offense.
Who to Watch - Mississippi State
QB Michael Van Buren - Freshman quarterback starting in place of the injured Blake Shapen (out for season), but is showing signs of rapid growth. Has a cannon of an arm and is willing and able to scramble as well, but is still very green (just his third start).
WR Kevin Coleman Jr. - Mississippi State’s leading receiver by a comfortable margin, with 36 receptions for 447 yards and 3 touchdowns. Louisville transfer has recorded at least six receptions in each of his last four games.
TE Seydou Traore - Athletic, tall tight end that is one of Mississippi State’s leading receiving threats at 6’4” and 235 pounds. Former standout at Arkansas State recorded 5 receptions for 51 yards against Georgia.
LB Stone Blanton - South Carolina transfer has been the replacement for star linebacker Nathaniel Watson, who’s now in the NFL. Second-leading tackler and leads the team in forced fumbles (2).
CB Brice Pollock - Mississippi State’s most productive cornerback, who had a big game against Georgia a week ago (had an interception and a forced fumble). His three pass deflections lead the Bulldogs.
S Isaac Smith - Bulldogs’ best defensive player. Tackling machine (tied for 13th in the country in tackles) who is seemingly always around the football. If there’s one guy to watch for, it’s Smith.
What to Watch For
Early on, I’ll be watching how the Aggies start this game coming out of a bye week. One of the recipes for success that Mike Elko has preached has been starting fast and keeping the foot on the gas pedal, and it’s worked out in games like the Florida and Missouri contests. If the Aggies can make their mark with their brand of football early on in a tough road environment, it could spell good things for the rest of the afternoon. Just have to go and play at a high level - can’t underestimate this team, despite their record.
How Texas A&M can overcome this really unique road environment that Mississippi State has. If you don’t really follow college football that much, Davis Wade Stadium prides themselves on their fans bringing cowbells to the game and ringing those throughout every contest to add to the crowd noise. It’s annoying as an opposing fan, and is another element that A&M has to be mindful of when preparing for a stadium that has gotten the best of them historically. (I guess the way to overcome it is by imposing their will early on.)
I’m intrigued to see Jeff Lebby’s offensive gameplan against this A&M pass rush. The last few weeks, the pass rush has really come alive against some good competition. With Lebby being an offensive-minded coach and with an offensive line that has been poor in pass protection this season, I’m ready to see if the Aggies can replicate that success from a pass-rushing perspective and get to Michael Van Buren early and often.
On that note - how often will Van Buren try to run the ball on this Aggie defense? The Aggies have gotten better since the start of the season at containing mobile quarterbacks or guys that at least have the ability and some willingness to run. They were able to keep Arkansas’ Taylen Green under wraps and get to Brady Cook six times in the backfield. Quarterbacks simply can’t hold onto the ball for so long behind bad o-lines - just ask Max Johnson the last few years here. If Van Buren tries to take off, I’m confident that they can contain him if it comes to it.
A&M has got to play clean tomorrow. Another one of Mike Elko’s key points he has consistently preached to his team is winning the turnover battle, and the Aggies have been able to do that for the most part - the only time they’ve lost it, they lost against Notre Dame. Mississippi State hasn’t been great this year, but their offense plays fast and has the ability to hit explosives, so keeping them off the field is paramount - the Ags just gotta play their brand of football. Consistently moving the chains, playing smart, and not forcing anything.
Albert Regis (17) has shown impressive growth this season and will be tasked with leading an emerging run defense against a dual-threat QB and modest running game. (Good Bull Hunting)
For all the talk that Mississippi State gets in their passing offense (and rightfully so, that facet is very, very solid), I’m ready to see how an improving run defense will be able to hold up against a couple of backs that have the capability of putting up some noteworthy numbers, even though the rushing game as a whole for the Bulldogs is pretty modest (just 96th in the country). The Aggies have completely shut down the run ever since SEC play started, and it’s been a big factor why they’ve been able to be good on that side of the ball.
The money-down battles between the two squads. Whenever Mississippi State is on offense, their third- and fourth-down success rate sits in the top 50, a very respectable mark. Meanwhile, Texas A&M’s defensive success rate on those downs is fifth in the nation, so they’ve been able to get off of the field on those downs. Conversely, when the Aggies will be on offense, Mississippi State’s defense has been horrid on those downs, having a success rate in the bottom six nationwide (A&M’s offensive success rate sits at 68th in the country).
Final Prediction
I will get this out of the way now and say that I think Texas A&M is going to win this game. I believe with the Aggie offense just has a great matchup against the Mississippi State defense, and that plays to A&M’s strengths of running the football and winning the lines of scrimmage almost too well. The Maroon and White should be able to do both at a high clip considering how poor the Bulldogs have been in those aspects of the game and, conversely, how good the Ags have been in those facets. Combine that with a lethal defensive line going up against a questionable offensive line, and the ingredients for success are there - they just have to follow the recipe.
But Texas A&M cannot underestimate this program. I understand that they’re a bad team and that they’re 1-5. But Starkville has historically been a house of horrors for the Aggies - they’re just 2-4 all time at Davis Wade Stadium. The Aggies are going to have to fight some road demons in this game.
Not to mention, Mike Elko said it best; “what you don’t want to see is a team getting better every week, and you don’t want to see a team that plays hard, and they do both.” This is not an assumed cakewalk by any means, despite A&M being double-digit favorites. But, I’m confident that Elko will have these guys locked in and focused on just getting the job done tomorrow without looking ahead.
Also, the two wins the Aggies have gotten at Mississippi State were catalysts for great seasons ahead - in 2012 and 2020. So win tomorrow, and history favors A&M.
But the Ags have to, have to, not look ahead and lock in for this game. And if they can do that, I’ll feel very encouraged. But all we gotta do is just win.
That’ll be it for this preview. Let’s conquer the cowbells and get that dub.
BTHO mississippi state.
-Sourav